Frontier's research expertise includes years of experience and is recognized as one of the best in the industry. The Frontier Research Department has developed some of the industry's most advanced econometric and time series models for price analysis and maintains an extensive database. The livestock sector database is one of the most comprehensive in the industry and includes cash prices of livestock and meat cuts, futures prices, inventory levels, slaughter levels, weights, and trade movement. The grain and oilseed database tracks data series from weekly exports and crush to historical supply and demand data. Balance sheet and price estimates are constantly updated as the weather changes and government reports are released.
Frontier's Research Department employs alternative models to forecast supply and demand, which allow greater breadth in exploring potential market outcomes and more dynamic decision making. The development of these alternative statistical models includes fundamental econometric models, transfer function models and time series models for most agricultural markets. The fundamental price models are based on historical supply and demand data and assume a stable industry structure. The transfer function models incorporate key supply indicators and trends in past prices and past forecast errors while, the time series models are based solely upon the patterns in historical prices. An overlay of these alternative models is utilized to project long-term cash prices for markets. Composite price forecasts, in general, tend to be the most accurate for short-term predictions.
The effect of weather on the pricing of agricultural markets is undeniable. Frontier currently subscribes to a number of alternative weather forecasting services that are used extensively to monitor world weather conditions. In the US and South America, crop scouts and trade contacts are used to assess crop potential.
Frontier's fundamental recommendations are communicated daily to clients through ongoing one-on-one contact. Information available includes assessment of supplies, prices, government reports, and forecasts as well as evaluations of trade and farm policy. Unlike other research-oriented firms, Frontier does not sell or publish any of its research. We reserve it exclusively for our clients.